Climate-induced fragility in areas affected by violent extremism and terrorism 

When: Tuesday 06 October 2026 | 11:30-12:30

Format: Breakout session

Hosted by: The Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF), adelphi global and the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)

Climate and environmental change are fundamentally reshaping the social, economic, and political conditions in which non-state armed groups recruit, operate, and sustain themselves. While they are rarely the direct drivers of conflict, these changes act as powerful risk multipliers that exacerbate governance failures, deepen livelihood insecurity, and intensify resource competition. Armed groups are increasingly adapting their strategies to exploit these climate- and environment-related vulnerabilities.A forthcoming adelphi/UNIDIR paper updating adelphi's 2016 assessment of this nexus shows that the evidence base has grown considerably more nuanced, revealing how armed groups adapt their recruitment, operational tactics and governance strategies in far more context-specific and varied ways than previously understood.  The complexity of the nexus and key recommendations were integral to the recently launched GCTF Nairobi Toolkit.

The central goal now is to translate this understanding into more effective, integrated, and resilient approaches at the international, national, and local levels, in both policy and implementation, with clear prioritisation.

Speakers: 

• Asha Abdikadir Omar, Field Manager, Horn of Africa Peace Network (HAPEN) Somalia
• Tendai Kasinganeti, Climate Peace and Security Advisor, United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU)
• Dr Siobhan O’Neil, Head of the MEAC Project, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)

Framing remarks by Lukas Rüttinger, Senior Advisor, adelphi global 

Moderated by Dr Andre Alves dos Reis, Head of Performance and Impact, Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF)

Return to the BCSC 2026 Agenda.