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Trading tools: The opportunities of quantifying and predicting climate security risks

When: 11 October 15:25-16:25

Format: Roundtable discussion

Venue: Breakout session

This roundtable discussion focuses on quantitative, predictive approaches and forecasting tools to assess, monitor and predict the climate security nexus from around the world. In response to climate-related security challenges, various qualitative instruments have been developed to help manage or even prevent future risks. As a next step, it is crucial to examine the strengths and weaknesses of current systems and tools and to identify strategic synergies between them. This roundtable will help potential tool users to understand what kind of resources exist, which tools might best suit their needs and how they can best complement each other. The aim of the session is to support potential users and decision makers by providing timely and state-of-the-art evidence on where, how and amongst whom climate exacerbates drivers of conflict and what can be done to catalyse early action to break the cycle between climate and conflict. 


  • Taye Abdulkadir, Senior Technical Member of the Continental Early Warning System, African Union
  • Bia Carneiro, Digital Innovations Co-Lead, CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security

  • Prof. Dr. Håvard Hegre, Researcher at the Department of Peace and Conflict Resolution, Uppsala University
  • Kiersten Johnson, FEWS NET Team Leader, U.S. Agency for International Development

  • Thomas Mayer, Project Lead, Data Science at PREVIEW
  • Dr. Sunday Okello, Assistant Professor, Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS)

Moderated by Grazia Pacillo, Senior Scientist, Co-Lead CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security