A climate double-crunch? Implications for development and security in India
When: 22 October 2025 | 10:00 to 12:00 CEST
Format: Scientific presentation & panel discussion
Venue: German Council on Foreign Relations, Rauchstrasse 17, 10787 Berlin
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Overview:
Climate change is creating a so-called “double-crunch” for many economies and societies: rising temperatures simultaneously undermine economic and development capacities and increase the costs and complexity of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. This phenomenon is compounded by demographic shifts, structural economic changes, and persistent fossil fuel dependencies - and has implications for security.
India ranks amongst the countries where these dynamics are particularly pronounced: rising temperatures, changing monsoon patterns, and increasing frequency or severity of extreme weather events are exerting significant pressure on agriculture, energy infrastructure, and urban systems. At the same time, India is committed to an ambitious energy transition targets, whilst facing demographic pressures and ongoing industrialization, making the interplay of climate impacts and development challenges especially complex.
Examples of pressures linked to climate change in India include:
- GDP impacts, both in the short and medium term;
- Rising investment demand for adaptive and defensive measures;
- Shortfalls in energy supply and rising prices; and
- Capital-intensive requirements for renewable-based electrification to meet India’s climate targets.
The resulting “climate double-crunch” could create a feedback loop: as climate impacts intensify, the capacity to implement decarbonization measures may diminish, increasing transition risks. Beyond economic impacts, these pressures can exacerbate social tensions and generate security threats, whilst potentially undermining development outcomes in India and comparable emerging economies.
Objectives: To hold a panel of research and policy experts to
Present and discuss the concept of the climate double-crunch and its implications for economic development and security, with a focus on India;
Explore the interaction between climate impacts, demographic change, structural economic shifts, and energy transition challenges in India;
Discuss strategies for strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of these compound risks
About the organisers:
This side event will be co-organised by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). In the context of the GeoClimRisk Project, funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) on behalf of the German Federal Foreign Office as part of the Climate Diplomacy Action Programme (CDAP), implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), PIK and DGAP.
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