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Climate Security Scenarios in the Balkans

When: 12 October 2022 | 9:15-12:00

Format: Working group 

Venue: Closed session. Participation is by invitation only

To engage security practitioners and policymakers in identifying and preparing for climate security risks, The International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) will facilitate a two-part scenario exercise focused on the Balkans. The first part will constitute a facilitated brainstorm discussion guided by the following:

What are the key socio-political, technological, demographic, diplomatic, military and economic drivers that will shape the climate security risk landscape in the Balkans during the next 5 years? Specifically, what are the most important and uncertain?

Participants and facilitators will conclude by isolating two of the most important and uncertain drivers of climate security risk. Second, using these drivers, participants will flesh out discrete scenarios, focused by the following:

  • What are the key characteristics of each scenario?
  • What does each scenario mean for key actors?
  • What key indicators would suggest this scenario is likely?
  • What key policy interventions might lead toward one scenario or another?

Co-Host and Facilitator: Erin Sikorsky, Director of Center for Climate and Security, International Military Council on Climate and Security

Co-Host: René Heise, Section Climate and Energy Security, NATO

Hosted by IMCCS & NATO 

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