Melting ice, rising tensions: Climate change as a threat multiplier in the Arctic
When: Tuesday 06 October 2026 | 15:50 - 16:50
Format: Breakout session
Hosted by: The German Federal Ministry of Defence, the German Federal Foreign Office, and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE)
Location: Breakout room 4 (Rathenau-Saal)
In-person attendees can use the following link to register for the breakout session at BCSC: Agenda – BCSC 2026 Kindly note you must be logged into the app to register.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average. Sea ice and permafrost are retreating, routes such as the Northern Sea Route are navigable for longer stretches of the year, and access to resources and fish stocks is drawing in more actors. At the same time, the region's security landscape has shifted since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: cooperation within the Arctic Council with Russia has stalled, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, and non-Arctic states such as China are gaining a stronger foothold in the region. This session will explore what these shifts mean for defence planning, allied cooperation, and operating in a harsh environment in a region where climate change and security are becoming inseparable.
Guiding questions:
- How is the retreat of ice and permafrost changing the security landscape in the Arctic, and how do military and diplomatic practitioners assess the consequences?
- What does NATO's enlargement with Finland and Sweden imply for the region's security architecture?
- How does climate change act as a "shaping force" in the Arctic?
- Where is climate change opening up new areas of cooperation between Arctic and non-Arctic states, and where is it sharpening competition over resources and routes?
- What lessons from the Arctic apply to other regions where climate change functions as a security risk?
Speakers:
- Raik Drescher, Branch Head, NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE)
- Commander Christian Ickert, Desk Officer Arctic, German Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVg)
- Marisol Maddox, Senior Arctic Fellow, Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth
- Petteri Vuorimäki, Special Envoy for Climate and Security, Finland
Moderated by Dr Franziska Hagedorn, Head of Arctic, Federal Foreign Office, Germany
Return to the BCSC 2026 Agenda.