Red Cross Red Crescent Session

German Red Cross and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Anticipatory Action in Times of Conflict
22 September , 3:45-5:15 pm

People affected by conflict are highly - and disproportionately - susceptible to climate- and weather-related hazards.  To address this, disaster risk reduction (DRR) is an essential part of the process to reduce these impacts. As part of these efforts, anticipatory approaches, in particular Forecast-based Financing (FbF), can help to protect people’s lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing in the face of foreseeable hazards. Based on risk analyses and forecasts, FbF provides the most vulnerable populations with assistance ahead of a (climate-related) disaster. These ‘anticipatory actions’ seek to cushion the impacts of a potentially harmful event. Yet, as it stands, most FbF programmes are happening in non-conflict settings. In this session, the Anticipation Hub engaged participants in a dynamic discussion about the potentials and challenges to expand FbF to fragile, conflict-affect contexts.  The session took a closer look at the risk assessment process conducted as part of FbF.  It also explored the opportunities for a comprehensive and harmonised risk assessment process that can also be used for conflict prevention and peacebuilding, beyond the framework of disasters alone.


  • Catalina Jaime, Senior Risk Adviser, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre / University of Twente
  • Liesa Sauerhammer, Manager for Disaster Risk Reduction in fragile contexts, German Red Cross


  • Marie Wagner, Research Associate, Global Public Policy Institute
  • Matthias Amling, Desk Officer for Anticipatory Humanitarian Assistance - Division for Humanitarian Assistance – Policy, International Organisations, Multilateral Coordination, German Federal Foreign Office
  • Alexandra Rüth, Head of the Anticipation Hub, German Red Cross

This event can be re-watched here