PIK Sessions

Priorities for Climate and Conflict Research (closed)
18 September, 3-5 pm

In a world affected by complex and interconnecting risks, we still lack comprehensive risk assessments identifying climate-related security risks and providing actionable information for policymakers. The Global Climate Security Risk and Foresight Assessment (GCSRFA) jointly led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and adelphi aims to address this gap. It combines scientific climate modelling with localized conflict and context analysis, to identify context specific dimensions of risk and resilience to inform timely, relevant and effective responses to climate-related security challenges. Despite a substantial increase in evidence in this area, there are still important gaps in our understanding of when and how climatic security risks emerge. This workshop brings together leading experts on climate and/or conflict, to improve the knowledge base for the GCSRFA. The following questions will be addressed:

  • What are important mechanisms behind the climate-conflict association and under what circumstances are they more/less likely to materialize?
  • What indicators should be considered to forecast climate-related conflict risks?
  • What are important research gaps and pitfalls when conducting causal climate-conflict analysis? What aspects need to be further explored (geographic, thematic, conceptual, data- or methods-related)?

Moderator
Barbora Sedova, FutureLab (Co-)Leader, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dr. Adrien Detges, Senior Project Manager, adelphi

Speakers

  • Dr. Kira Vinke, Future Lab Social Metabolism and Impacts, Project Lead EPICC (East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Dr. Babak Rezaeedaryakenari, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Political Science, Leiden University
  • Dr. Nina von UexkullResearcher at Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
  • Dr. Tobias Ide,  DECRA Fellow, University of Melbourne

This event already took place.


Methodological Frontier to Estimate Past and Future Climate Change Impacts on Conflict (closed)
23 September, 3-5 pm

In a world affected by complex and interconnecting risks, we still lack comprehensive risk assessments identifying climate-related security risks and providing actionable information for policymakers. The Global Climate Security Risk and Foresight Assessment (GCSRFA) jointly led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and adelphi aims to address this gap. One of the essential components of a GCSRFA is the prediction of conflict risk under changing climatic conditions.  Machine  learning techniques and newly available high quality data products  can improve predictions and support early warning systems. There has been a substantial progress in this area over the past years. This workshop brings together leading experts in the fields of quantitative climate and/or conflict analysis to discuss methodological advances and improve the methodological base for the GCSRFA. The following questions will be addressed:

  • How well can we currently predict future conflict (in response to climate change)? How can we improve these predictions?
  • What are the limitations and advances in terms of data? What role do/can Big Data play in conflict predictions?
  • What indicators should be considered to forecast climate-related conflict risks?

Moderator
Barbora Sedova, FutureLab (Co-)Leader, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dr. Adrien Detges, Senior Project Manager, adelphi

Speakers

  • Dr. Tobias Heidland, Deputy Head of Research Center “Poverty Reduction, Equity, and Development", Kiel Institute for the World Economy
  • Bo Schwartz Madsen, Data Scientist, Danish Refugee Council

  • Dr. Hannes Müller, Associate Research Professor, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics

  • Dr. Andrew Linke, Assistant Professor, Geography Department, University of Utah

  • Dr. Katja FrielerHead of Research Department III - Transformation Pathways, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

This event already took place.